The week in review
Only 3 of 11 sectors finished the week in positive territory, which tells the story more clearly than any index level. Health Care, Energy, and Materials gained ground while Technology, Utilities, and Industrials each fell more than 3%. The Nasdaq 100 bore the brunt of the selling, down 2.41%, while the Dow held up comparatively well at -0.78%.
Broad uptrend with healthy participation: most stocks above trend.
Where the money went
Weekly total return of the 11 SPDR sector ETFs, measured Friday close to Friday close.
| Health Care | +4.33% | |
| Energy | +2.75% | |
| Materials | +1.86% | |
| Consumer Staples | -0.10% | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -0.19% | |
| Real Estate | -0.43% | |
| Financials | -1.14% | |
| Communication Svcs | -1.35% | |
| Industrials | -3.37% | |
| Utilities | -3.49% | |
| Technology | -3.53% |
The data behind the tape
Every release links straight to the issuing agency. No aggregator in between.
| Date | Release | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 08-18-2026 | Housing starts The New Residential Construction data gave the market a read on how building activity is holding up under elevated rate conditions, a figure watched closely given ongoing sensitivity to mortgage costs. | Official release › |
| 08-18-2026 | Industrial production The G.17 release offered a snapshot of factory and utility output, relevant to the week's sector moves given the sharp underperformance in Industrials. | Official release › |
| 08-19-2026 | Fed minutes The FOMC meeting minutes provided more detail on the thinking behind the Fed's most recent decision, and traders parsed them for any shift in how policymakers are weighing growth against inflation. | Official release › |
The prints that mattered
Ranked by surprise versus consensus. Figures from the reported quarter.
| Company | Actual | Source |
|---|---|---|
Heavy AI infrastructure investment compressed margins sharply. Revenue came in ahead of expectations, but the profit shortfall by more than 20% was the number that moved the stock, which fell over 7% on the day. | 8.47 | Full report › |
Walmart beat on the bottom line with broad-based strength across its retail and advertising businesses, though the stock still slid roughly 9% on the week as analysts trimmed targets in the aftermath. | 0.81 | Full report › · Our thesis › |
Target posted a stronger-than-expected quarter and raised both its sales and earnings guidance, signaling that its turnaround has moved into a steadier phase even as analysts flag that the sharpest gains in the stock may be behind it. | 2.46 | Full report › · Our thesis › |
Deere beat estimates and raised its full-year net income outlook to a range of $4.75 to $5 billion, with management characterizing 2026 as the bottom of the agricultural equipment cycle, which the market treated as mildly reassuring. | 5.10 | Full report › |
Lowe's beat the earnings estimate but cut its full-year guidance to a range below what analysts had penciled in. The narrowed outlook weighed on the stock even as some analysts pointed to the possibility of comparable-sales improvement in the second half. | 4.40 | Full report › |
Aug 24 – Aug 28
What is scheduled. Not a forecast of how it lands.
Names we have a view on
What in each report would support or undermine our published research. Business facts only, not price calls.
Confirms: AI-assisted tax and QuickBooks attach-rate gains, operating margin holding above 40%, and forward revenue growth guidance above 10% would support the durability case.
Breaks: Guidance implying revenue growth below 10% or any operating margin compression toward 40% would undermine the franchise quality argument.
Confirms: Improving Agentforce monetization, FCF margin staying well above 30%, and operating margin expansion would validate the quality franchise view.
Breaks: FCF margin slipping toward 30%, operating margin falling below 18%, or further weakening of AI revenue attach rates would erode the cash-conversion thesis.
Confirms: Data-center revenue growth well above 20% and operating margin sustained above 55% would confirm the AI capex cycle remains firmly in NVDA's favor.
Breaks: Data-center revenue growth decelerating below 20% or any forward guidance signaling demand softness from hyperscalers would challenge the cycle-continuation view.
Confirms: A meaningful sequential acceleration in data-center and AI networking revenue alongside improving operating margins would signal the growth expectations embedded in the valuation are being met.
Breaks: Flat or declining data-center revenue, operating margin falling below 12%, or further reduction in institutional holder count would reinforce the thin-conviction, orphan assessment.
What this means
Next week brings two high-impact prints on the same day: the GDP revision and PCE inflation, both due Wednesday the 26th. PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, so landing it alongside a growth read in the same session historically widens intraday ranges and can shift rate-path expectations quickly. NVDA, CRM, and CRWD all report after the close that same day, making Wednesday a particularly information-dense session. With the VIX already climbing from 14.25 to 16.01 this week, that compressed calendar is worth keeping in mind when sizing positions heading into the open.
Not personalized advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are sourced from public market data and the agencies linked above.
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